Professor Byron Kotzamanis analyzes the issue
The effects of demographic Our developments in age structures, and in particular in the changes of the crowd and the special weighing of two large age groups: 20-64 and 65 and over, is considering the latest publication of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (demographic aging, a workplace of Greece). Thessaly and Director of IDEM Mr. Byron Kotzamanis.
Mr Kotzamanis examines in particular the future development of 20-64 years (working-age population), its impact on workers’ population and the relationship of workers to 65 years or older, who are taken as “dependent” (although it is not only in part-not all of them). The expected medium-term significant decrease in the crowd of 20-64 years is mainly due to the shrinking of intergenerational fertility as those of pre-war generations of the early post-war decades made an average of 2.2 children, those who were born around 1960. This was also reflected in births decreased after 1980, a decrease that has been accelerated over the last fifteen years as the population of women in childhood have declined significantly (a trend that is not expected to stop in the coming decades). This decline in births initially led to a decrease of 0-19 years, following the youth population of productive and reproductive age (20-44 years) and the end of 45-64 years, while the entry of economic immigrants into our country after 1990 simply slowed down 0-64 years.
During the same period, Mr Kotzamanis says, 65 years and older are constantly increasing, an age group that comes from pre -1980s, and at the same time benefited from the significant increase in life expectancy, a result of the significant reduction in mortality after 1950. Our immigration balance (more exits from entrances to our country) as immigration concerned young people aged 25-45 years, both Greek and foreigners who settled or born in Greece in the past decades. The debate and the reflection on this exit, says Mr Kotzamanis, unfortunately focuses on only one of its components – the “brain drain” of Greeks mainly – although a large part of those who abandoned our country after 2000 are Greeks and foreigners with relatively low levels and relatively low levels. Economic activity.
The 65 -year -old group, based on Mr Kotzamanis’ analysis, is the only one that will grow in the future (will be more than 1/3 of our country’s residents in the early 2050s against 24% today), while the total population of Greece is expected to be reduced by 20 million to 20 million. This will obviously result from the shrinkage of younger 65 years and in particular their largest section of 20-64 years.
Given the expected significant reduction of 20-64 years (around 1.7 million if the immigration balance is zero in the next twenty -five years), Mr Kotzamanis raises and answers the following question: it is possible -and under what conditions of 20 of the age of 20. This goal, if put, can be achieved under two terms:
Increasing the particularly low rate of 20-64 years of employment due to the extremely low rates of employment of both women in all age groups (we have the largest sexuality gap between sexes) and both sexes at the age of 20-29 and 55-64). If this percentage progressively increases from 67% today to 82% in 2050, the expected reduction in the crowd of 20-64 years 2050 will be significantly reduced. In particular, even if the 20-64 years are reduced by 1.68 million (from 5.95 to 4.27), the employees of this age group will amount to 2050 to 3.5 million against € 4,015 million in 2025 (-515 mm). In this favorable scenario, there would be 1.1 employees of 20-64 years per old 65+ (3.5/3.15) instead of 1.6 today.
A positive immigration balance in the next twenty -five years of around 700 thousand. A balance of this class (+28 mm/year on average for twenty-five years) that remains much smaller than the one in 1991-2010 (40 mm per year) would reduce the reduction of the total population of 20-64 and would increase employees by 500 thousand. and today) while they corresponded to 1.24 employees of 20-64 years per elderly 65+ (3.90/3.15) against 1.64 today (4,015/2.45 million).
A possible positive immigration balance of this class reports by Mr Kotzamanis, at the same time a positive impact on “demographic”, as a portion of the surplus of entrances to the expenses would consist of young people, not only productive but also reproductive ages (259). They would slow down demographic aging but also the reduction of people at the age of children (women aged 25-49 years, is expected, if the immigration balance is zero to reduce by 465 mm between 2025 and 2050, ie -28%).
Of course, even if this goal is achieved, the current ratio employed with people 65 years and over (164 employees per 100 elderly today) will change as only 124 will correspond to 2050. of the negative effects of our demographic developments.
Speaking to the Athens -Macedonian News Agency, Mr Kotzamanis stresses, inter alia, that the produced and “captured” wealth of a country to meet its needs in many areas (and not only on pensions that are mainly focused on the public dialogue). It depends on the “quality” of the human resources as well as a number of other parameters many of which have been mentioned for many years both in the Bank of Greece and the KEPE and the reports of all international organizations on the Greek economy.
